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One 2012 study, following a flood of 30 million mostly Latin American immigrants between 1980 and 2012, showed that 62% of naturalized immigrants able to vote identified as Democrats, compared to 25% who were Republicans and 13% independents. A 2016 study, using data from 1994-2012, confirmed that “immigration to the U.S. has a significant and negative impact on the Republican vote share, consistent with the typical view of political analysts in the U.S.” Latin American immigration flipped former Republican strongholds to the Democratic Party, including California’s San Bernardino County, which in 1980 was 7.7% foreign-born and 59.7% Republican, but which by 2014 was 21.4% immigrant and only 46.2% Republican.
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While the Democratic Party has been importing voters from abroad, the party and most large urban governments have become fused to a degree beyond the wildest dreams of Boss Tweed. In 2000, four of the 10 most populous American cities had Republican mayors. Today Democratic mayors account for nine out of 10. In these cities, the Democratic Party’s urban patronage machines of yesteryear have been replaced by new kinds of patronage machines: unionized public sector bureaucracies whose members are overwhelmingly Democratic, and kick back shares of their wages in the form of both money and time to the party. Democrat-dominated nonprofits double as contractors, whose salary lines are funded by the taxpayers. They are joined by nonprofits and businesses that are defined as “nonwhite” under America’s arbitrary and increasingly anachronistic racial classification laws, and are therefore eligible for large government contracts that they would presumably not receive under prior merit-based criteria.
In addition to benefiting indirectly from immigrant voting for urban Democratic politicians, these urban bureaucracies and special interests benefit directly from increased immigration, which swells their constituencies, which leads in turn to more money, more jobs, and more power. Unionized public school bureaucracies gain more students; progressive nonprofits gain more clients; and more funds flow to supposed representatives of “underrepresented communities”—representatives who, in general, are far more affluent and educated than the populations they purport to represent on the basis of shared skin color or other identity politics markers.
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In addition to benefiting indirectly from immigrant voting for urban Democratic politicians, these urban bureaucracies and special interests benefit directly from increased immigration, which swells their constituencies, which leads in turn to more money, more jobs, and more power. Unionized public school bureaucracies gain more students; progressive nonprofits gain more clients; and more funds flow to supposed representatives of “underrepresented communities”—representatives who, in general, are far more affluent and educated than the populations they purport to represent on the basis of shared skin color or other identity politics markers.
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California’s immigrants are far less educated than the U.S. as a whole, with only 71% having graduated from high school, compared to 93% of Californians born in the U.S. According to one 2023 study, state and local taxes paid for illegal immigrants by Californians, excluding their federal tax payments, make up a sixth of the costs of illegal immigration in the U.S. as a whole. In addition to thwarting federal immigration law enforcement through sanctuary laws, California has turned itself into a welfare magnet for illegal immigrants by providing law-breaking foreign nationals and their children with health care coverage under the statewide Medi-Cal system, in-state tuition at public colleges and universities, K-12 schooling, and housing and food assistance.
As the low-wage, welfare-dependent immigrant share of a state’s population grows, more and more taxpayers will be tempted to move to other states with lower taxes and less generous state and urban welfare programs. States like California, which once served as an engine of prosperity for the entire country, will decline into bureaucracy-choked sinkholes. Requiring sky-high taxation and endless federal bailouts to stay afloat will seriously threaten American competitiveness in key fields like computing and biotech. It will also put tremendous pressure on the country’s republican system of government, which is structured to prevent one state or region from gobbling up too much of the national taxpayer pie.
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California’s immigrants are far less educated than the U.S. as a whole, with only 71% having graduated from high school, compared to 93% of Californians born in the U.S. According to one 2023 study, state and local taxes paid for illegal immigrants by Californians, excluding their federal tax payments, make up a sixth of the costs of illegal immigration in the U.S. as a whole. In addition to thwarting federal immigration law enforcement through sanctuary laws, California has turned itself into a welfare magnet for illegal immigrants by providing law-breaking foreign nationals and their children with health care coverage under the statewide Medi-Cal system, in-state tuition at public colleges and universities, K-12 schooling, and housing and food assistance.
As the low-wage, welfare-dependent immigrant share of a state’s population grows, more and more taxpayers will be tempted to move to other states with lower taxes and less generous state and urban welfare programs. States like California, which once served as an engine of prosperity for the entire country, will decline into bureaucracy-choked sinkholes. Requiring sky-high taxation and endless federal bailouts to stay afloat will seriously threaten American competitiveness in key fields like computing and biotech. It will also put tremendous pressure on the country’s republican system of government, which is structured to prevent one state or region from gobbling up too much of the national taxpayer pie.
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New American Economy, an advocacy group that lobbies for higher immigration, claims that Americans refuse to do jobs with largely immigrant workforces like “plasterers and stucco masons” (72%), “maids and housekeeping cleaners” (50.6 %), and “misc. agricultural workers, including workers who pick crops in the field” (52.2%). But U.S.-born workers and many naturalized immigrant citizens avoid these and other fields because of low wages, which a large and easily exploited immigrant workforce allows employers to pay. For example, U.S. farm worker wages are only slightly more than half of the average wages of nonsupervisory and production workers outside of agriculture.
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Unfortunately for the Democratic Party’s pro-mass-immigration coalition of the declining, many immigrants and their children are deserting both the party and the cities and states that it rules. Having counted on Hispanic immigrants and their descendants to compensate for the exodus of the white working class, Democrats were shocked in December 2023 by a Reuters/Ipsos poll that showed Hispanics favoring Trump over Biden by 38% to 37%. An even more recent USA Today and Suffolk University poll has Trump leading Biden among Hispanic voters 39%-34%. Trump’s share of the national Hispanic vote rose from 28% in 2016 to 36% in 2020. In Texas, ground zero of America’s immigration crisis, the number of Hispanics who identify as Democrats fell from 63% in 2019 to 54% in 2022.
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If partisan divisions among Hispanics thwart the hoped-for immigration-driven hegemony of the Democratic Party, then the Democrats will have to return to the strategy of “third way” New Democrats like Bill Clinton, move to the center, and try to convert Republican voters instead of importing new voters from other countries … No, just kidding! If Latin Americans fail to vote the way that Democratic strategists want, new voters will simply have to be found and imported from other regions of the world like the Middle East and Africa, where Democrats can hope that the combination of race, religion and deep-seated ethnic hatreds will successfully ghettoize new voters and ensure their allegiance to the party.
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